Who Will be Part of Germany’s Next Government?
After the election in Germany, it is still completely open which parties will form the next government. For the first time in Germany’s post World War II history, a three-way coalition is likely.
Mathematically, a new edition of the grand coalition would be possible – but neither the CDU/CSU nor the SPD seriously considers this option. At the moment, everything points to a three-way coalition. In which constellation, however, is still open. Much could depend on the Greens and the FDP. The following coalitions are up for debate:
According to the results, a coalition between the SPD, the Greens and the FDP would currently have a comfortable majority. In terms of content, things are looking good between the SPD and the Greens – they agree on many issues – such as the wealth tax or an easing of the debt brake. The relationship with the FDP is complicated. It would, however, take some effort for the party to govern with the Greens and Social Democrats. Your party chairman Christian Lindner has set the goal of preventing a “left shift in politics” with higher taxes. However, he does not rule out a coalition with the SPD and the Greens, albeit the FDP would charge a very high price for such an arrangement – likely the Ministry of Finance.
But there are also some substantive differences between the SPD and the Greens: SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz does not want to commit to an earlier coal exit than 2038. There is currently an example of a functioning SPD-Green-FDP coalition at the state level – in Rhineland-Palatinate.
According to the current results, the CDU-Greens-FDP would also have a majority of the seats in the Bundestag. In this constellation, the Greens would have to overcome a lot – between the CDU / CSU and the FDP. On the other hand, there is a lot of overlap. CDU/CSU and FDP could try to slow down the Greens in their climate and social policy.
However, there is an example of a functioning black-green-yellow alliance – in Schleswig-Holstein. The CDU-Greens-FDP, however, is burdened with a heavy mortgage: In 2017, negotiations on such an alliance crashed when the FDP exited negotiations at the last minute. FDP leader Lindner can hardly afford to repeat such a move, but the substantive differences with the Greens remain, mainly because they also want to hold the industry accountable for climate protection.
The CDU/CSU and the SPD have formed a coalition for many years – now both partners in the grand coalition are tired, even if it were mathematically possible. The SPD, in particular, has little inclination to reissue the unloved alliance with CDU/CSU.
However, a new grand coalition is not entirely out of the question: It could come about if the Greens and the FDP do not agree in the negotiations.